Projections of the prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy in 2019 and beyond : results from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, 9th edition

Aim: Hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP) is one of the most common complications of pregnancy. This study aims to examine the projected HIP prevalence in 2030 and 2045 using multiple methods. Methods: The International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas 2019 prevalence was projected to 2030 and 2045 by: (1) carrying forward the 2019 age-adjusted prevalence rates; (2) applying a linear regression of the past four editions of the IDF Diabetes Atlas; (3) applying a regression of the previous editions with the most consistent trend, followed by extrapolation from the 9th edition HIP estimate. Results: Respectively, for 2030 and 2045, Method 1 projected a declining HIP rate with prevalences of 14.0% and 13.3%, Method 2 projected an increasing HIP prevalence at 16.5% and 18.3%, Method 3 predicted stabilisation of the rate from 16.0% to 15.8%. Conclusion: Assuming other factors remain unchanged, our best estimation of age-adjusted HIP will show stabilisation between 2019 and 2045 of 15.8% to 16.0%. However, this estimate is confounded by the heterogeneity of studies and the influence of different gestational diabetes mellitus diagnostic criteria. To provide accurate future comparisons we recommend standardising the diagnostic criteria to the International Association of Diabetes in Pregnancy Study Groups.