Prospective validation of first-trimester ultrasound characteristics as predictive tools for twin-twin transfusion syndrome and selective intrauterine growth restriction in monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies

Objective: Monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) twins are at increased risk of adverse outcome due to unequal placental sharing and placental vascular communications between the fetal circulations. Most centres perform ultrasound examination every 2-3 weeks to identify these complications. Identifying a high-risk cohort of MCDA twins in the first trimester would allow more efficient surveillance. We have attempted to validate first-trimester ultrasound characteristics as predictive tools for twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) and selective intrauterine growth restriction (sIUGR) in MCDA twins. Material and Methods: This is a prospective cohort study including MCDA twins enrolled at the time of first-trimester combined screening. Differences in crown-rump length (CRL), nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, ductus venosus pulsatility index for veins (DV PIV), presence or absence of tricuspid regurgitation and right ventricular E/A ratio were assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the potential value of these measures as predictive tools for identifying a cohort of MCDA pregnancies at high risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. Results: Sixty-five MCDA pregnancies were included in the analysis. Nine (14%) developed TTTS, 17 (26%) developed sIUGR. The best predictive marker for TTTS was NT discordance of ≥20% (ROC AUC = 0.79; 95% CI 0.59-0.99). Combining measures did not improve performance (AUC = 0.80; 95% CI 0.62-0.99). Conclusion: NT discordance was the most effective characteristic at predicting TTTS but still had a relatively poor positive predictive value (36%). Intertwin differences in CRL, DV PIV and E/A ratio were not predictive of subsequent pregnancy complications. None of these characteristics have sufficient efficacy to be used to triage MCDA twin pregnancies ongoing obstetric surveillance.