Regression Toward the Mean Artifacts and Matthew effects in multilevel value-added analyses of individual schools

Xiaoxu Li, Herbert W. Marsh, Kit-Tai Hau, Irene T. Ho, Andrew J. Martin

    Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference PaperConference Paper

    Abstract

    ![CDATA[League tables are a problematic approach to inferring school effectiveness, but traditional value-added approaches are fraught with statistical complexities. According to the Regression Towards the Mean Artifacts (RTMA), students with initially high or low scores tend to regress towards the mean in subsequent testing, resulting in biased estimates of school growth (Marsh & Hau, 2002). The Matthews effect is an apparently counter-balancing artifact in growth in achievement gains is systematically larger for students who are initially more able. (i.e., the rich becomes richer). Mathematical proof shows that although the Matthew and the RTMA artifacts work in opposite direction and tend to cancel each other, they share a similar mechanism and can be rectified. In this study, mathematical derivations and Monte Carlo simulated data are used to compare four models, namely: (i) without any remedy, (ii) with remedy for Matthew effect only, (iii) with remedy for RTMA only, (iv) remedies for both Matthew and RTMA effects. The conditional strategy with individual assignment test scores (used in assigning students to different schools) as covariate remedies artifacts, consistent with Marsh & Hau's (2002) conclusion for RTMA. The associated problems with the two effects in estimating school value-added information are discussed.]]
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationAustralian Association for Research in Education 2005 conference papers
    PublisherAustralian Association for Research in Education
    Number of pages1
    Publication statusPublished - 2005
    EventAustralian Association for Research in Education. Conference -
    Duration: 2 Dec 2012 → …

    Publication series

    Name
    ISSN (Print)1324-9339

    Conference

    ConferenceAustralian Association for Research in Education. Conference
    Period2/12/12 → …

    Keywords

    • education
    • evaluation
    • educational accountability
    • school improvement programs
    • Regression Towards the Mean Artifacts
    • Matthews effect

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