Reintroducing the technology life cycle into technological forecasting : reconceptualization and a model of system disaggregation

![CDATA[Research by scholars of technological innovation illustrated the best practices of cross-functional integration in product and process innovation. It had major effect on research of technology forecasting, refocusing it on application and system level forecasting, substituting the technology life cycle (TLC) conceptual framework by the product life cycle (PLC) and diffusion related S-curves. In this paper, our initial objective is to reintroduce the TLC and its conceptual antecedents anchored in the interactions and mutual influence between scientific advances and technological progress. The second contribution of this paper is a conceptual model that disaggregates a product or system into its Bill of Technologies. This model is intended to facilitate more specific and informative analysis about the causal connections between technological progress of system’s key technologies and system level performance attributes. Mapping the technological life cycles (TLCs) of these technologies, including the scientific-technological limits embodied in their S-curves, should also have significant practical application for resource allocation decisions, and technology strategy, planning, and roadmapping. We briefly illustrate the model with publicly available information about the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and a generic MRI system.]]