Risk assessment in counterterrorism

The events of September 11, 2011, were a graphic illustration of the use of violence by terrorists to engender fear in the wider community (Burleigh, 2008). For many observers 9/11 highlighted their own vulnerability to terrorist attack and caused public fear throughout the world. Since then, faced with public concerns about terrorism, jurisdictions globally have spent significant resources enacting legislation, collecting intelligence and pursuing those who hold extremist views and who are suspected of terrorism (Grayling, 2009). In doing this a problem arises: how do jurisdictions distinguish those individuals who present a significant risk of violence to the public, from the many other individuals who share their extremist political views but who present little risk? Answering this problem would enable jurisdictions to better focus their limited resources toward those who pose the greatest risk. In considering this issue, this chapter will explore terrorist risk assessment. We will begin by considering what risk assessment is, and the considerations that need to be made prior to attempts to risk assess. We then consider the current state of terrorist risk assessment, before proposing some ideas about how this field can be developed in the future.