Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning: Scenario Exercise Literature Review

This report provides the context of what scenario exercise are, why they are used, and how they can be used to achieve the aims in the above statement. A scenario is a description of how the future may unfold based on 'if-then' propositions and typically consists of a representation of an initial situation and a description of the key driving forces and changes that lead to a particular future state. Scenario exercises, i.e. the development and analysis of scenarios, provide an approach to thinking through plausible future developments and related uncertainties in a structured, yet creative manner. Scenarios can take many forms including an image, a graphic, a table, or text. In particular, scenarios have been seen as useful when trying to understand and reflect upon the considerable uncertainties about future developments in complex systems. Such uncertainty may arise from a system’s dynamics, or may be related to assumptions on the future development of driving forces (Alcamo 2008: 15).