Simulating regional vegetation-climate dynamics for middle America : tropical versus temperate applications

Rebecca S. Snell, Sharon A. Cowling, Ben Smith

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Regional vegetation-climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation-climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ-GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ-GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r = 0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over-simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non-parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)567-577
Number of pages11
JournalBiotropica
Volume45
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Keywords

  • United States
  • arid regions
  • ecosystems
  • forest fires
  • plants
  • tropics

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