Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress

Hassan Baji; Hamid Reza Ronagh

doi:10.1007/978-981-15-5144-4_114

Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress

Hassan Baji
, Hamid Reza Ronagh

Western Sydney University

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Conference Paper › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology in which both the temporal and spatial variation of water seepage in tunnel lining can be considered. Temporal variation is modelled using the Gamma process, while copulas are used to model spatial correlation in the seepage process. Simulation based on the Monte Carlo technique is employed to find the extent of water seepage over the tunnel. An illustrative example is used to show applicability of the proposed method. The results showed that the likelihood and extent of seepage-induced damage rapidly increase with time. Based on an acceptable probability of failure of 0.20, service life of tunnel for 50% extent of damage is more than three times that of 0.05 of extent of damage. Output of this research highlights the need for more research on statistical analysis of water seepage in concrete.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	ICSCEA 2019: Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture, ICSCEA 2019, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 24 - 26 October 2019
Publisher	Springer
Pages	1161-1168
Number of pages	8
ISBN (Print)	9789811551437
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5144-4_114
Publication status	Published - 2020
Event	International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture - Duration: 24 Oct 2019 → …

Publication series

Name
ISSN (Print)	2366-2557

Conference

Conference	International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture
Period	24/10/19 → …

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2020.

Keywords

Monte Carlo method
concrete
seepage
service life (engineering)
tunnels

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10.1007/978-981-15-5144-4_114

Cite this

Baji, H., & Ronagh, H. R. (2020). Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress. In ICSCEA 2019: Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture, ICSCEA 2019, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 24 - 26 October 2019 (pp. 1161-1168). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5144-4_114

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title = "Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress",

abstract = "This paper presents a methodology in which both the temporal and spatial variation of water seepage in tunnel lining can be considered. Temporal variation is modelled using the Gamma process, while copulas are used to model spatial correlation in the seepage process. Simulation based on the Monte Carlo technique is employed to find the extent of water seepage over the tunnel. An illustrative example is used to show applicability of the proposed method. The results showed that the likelihood and extent of seepage-induced damage rapidly increase with time. Based on an acceptable probability of failure of 0.20, service life of tunnel for 50\% extent of damage is more than three times that of 0.05 of extent of damage. Output of this research highlights the need for more research on statistical analysis of water seepage in concrete.",

keywords = "Monte Carlo method, concrete, seepage, service life (engineering), tunnels",

author = "Hassan Baji and Ronagh, \{Hamid Reza\}",

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year = "2020",

doi = "10.1007/978-981-15-5144-4\_114",

language = "English",

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Baji, H & Ronagh, HR 2020, Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress. in ICSCEA 2019: Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture, ICSCEA 2019, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 24 - 26 October 2019. Springer, pp. 1161-1168, International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture, 24/10/19. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5144-4_114

Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress. / Baji, Hassan; Ronagh, Hamid Reza.
ICSCEA 2019: Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture, ICSCEA 2019, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 24 - 26 October 2019. Springer, 2020. p. 1161-1168.

Research output: Chapter in Book / Conference Paper › Conference Paper › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress

AU - Baji, Hassan

AU - Ronagh, Hamid Reza

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd 2020.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - This paper presents a methodology in which both the temporal and spatial variation of water seepage in tunnel lining can be considered. Temporal variation is modelled using the Gamma process, while copulas are used to model spatial correlation in the seepage process. Simulation based on the Monte Carlo technique is employed to find the extent of water seepage over the tunnel. An illustrative example is used to show applicability of the proposed method. The results showed that the likelihood and extent of seepage-induced damage rapidly increase with time. Based on an acceptable probability of failure of 0.20, service life of tunnel for 50% extent of damage is more than three times that of 0.05 of extent of damage. Output of this research highlights the need for more research on statistical analysis of water seepage in concrete.

AB - This paper presents a methodology in which both the temporal and spatial variation of water seepage in tunnel lining can be considered. Temporal variation is modelled using the Gamma process, while copulas are used to model spatial correlation in the seepage process. Simulation based on the Monte Carlo technique is employed to find the extent of water seepage over the tunnel. An illustrative example is used to show applicability of the proposed method. The results showed that the likelihood and extent of seepage-induced damage rapidly increase with time. Based on an acceptable probability of failure of 0.20, service life of tunnel for 50% extent of damage is more than three times that of 0.05 of extent of damage. Output of this research highlights the need for more research on statistical analysis of water seepage in concrete.

KW - Monte Carlo method

KW - concrete

KW - seepage

KW - service life (engineering)

KW - tunnels

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M3 - Conference Paper

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BT - ICSCEA 2019: Proceedings of the International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering and Architecture, ICSCEA 2019, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 24 - 26 October 2019

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ER -

Stochastic modelling for service life prediction of underground tunnels subjected to water ingress

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