Study on the Limit of Moisture Content of Smoldering Humus during Sub-Surface Fires in the Boreal Forests of China

A sub-surface forest fire is a kind of fire that spreads slowly with no flames and lower temperatures, and threatens the ecosystem and human life. The moisture content of humus is considered to be an important factor in determining fire occurrence and sustaining. The humus of the Larix gmelinii in the Daxing’an Mountains was selected for the experiment, the limit moisture content condition of sub-surface forest fires was determined by an experiment simulating smoldering, and the prediction model of the probability of sub-surface forest fire occurrence was established. The results will be of great significance for the prevention, monitoring, and fighting of sub-surface forest fires in the boreal forest. The results showed that when the moisture content of humus in the upper layer was low, the smoldering process could be self-sustaining at 20%. For deeper layers of a depth of 18 cm, this increased to 30% moisture content of the humus and was the critical depth for sub-surface fires. The moisture content of 40% was a limit to burning where smoldering can only last for a short duration and is then extinguished. When the moisture content of the humus was 20%, the smoldering temperature was higher and the rate of spread was faster, with smoldering being maintained for longer periods at 30% moisture content. The regression prediction model of the highest temperature and vertical rate of spread in a column of humus was correlated to moisture content and depth, and the model significance was good at p < 0.01. Based on moisture content and depth, the occurrence probability prediction model of sub-surface fires has a good correlation (R² = 0.93) and high prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.995). The effect of moisture content (Or = 4.008) on the occurrence probability of sub-surface fires is higher than that of depth (Or = 2.948). The results point out that it is necessary to prevent and monitor the occurrence of sub-surface fires when the humus moisture content is less than 40%. In order to reduce the risk of sub-surface fires, the monitoring time of the fire field should be extended after the fire is extinguished due to the slow-burning process of the sub-surface fire. Increasing the moisture content of the humus is an important method to reduce the probability and restrain the spread of sub-surface fires.