The contribution of climate drivers to compound drought and extreme temperature events increased in recent decades

Compound climate extremes severely impact crops more than individual events. Understanding historical changes in compound extreme events and their drivers is crucial for managing climate risks and protecting crop survival. Using a hybrid biophysical-statistical modeling approach, we investigated the connections between large-scale climate drivers of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)/Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and compound drought and extreme temperature (DET) across Australia's wheat belt from 1900 to 2020. DET in eastern Australia's wheat belt was more responsive to ENSO/IOD compared to the west. El Niño and positive IOD phases intensified DET and increased the probability of high-intensity DET, whereas La Niña and negative IOD reduced them. Probabilities of high-intensity DET have exhibited a temporal increase, during the strong El Niño phase and the positive IOD phase. Our findings highlight the need to assess the spatial-temporal response of compound events to climate drivers for effective early warning and mitigation.