The effects of tobacco control policy on the Social Security trust fund

Smoking cessation will reduce mortality, and this reduction in mortality will affect Social Security in two main ways. First, more people will survive to retirement age, and these additional survivors will pay taxes, thus benefitting the Social Security trust fund. Second, because more people will reach retirement, and life expectancy following retirement will be higher, the outflow from the Social Security trust fund will also increase. Tobacco control policy may also affect Social Security in other ways. Because workers will be in better health and thus more productive, their earnings will be greater and they will retire somewhat later, thus increasing the inflow of taxes. In addition, because fewer workers will die, there will be a reduction in survivor benefits to underage children and their caretakers. The overall effect of a reduction in smoking on the Social Security trust fund is an empirical question that requires evaluation of these offsetting effects.