Abstract
To date, no empirical study has examined the impact of negative gearing and other factors on residential investors’ decisions using quantitative analysis. We applied a structural vector autoregression framework to trace the response of residential investors in Greater Sydney to shocks in its key drivers over the period 1991–2018. We discovered a residential investors’ profile in which negative gearing is being used to cushion any net rental loss during periods of low yield while expecting capital growth over their holding period. This supports the hypotheses of the study which posit that capital gains and negative gearing have a positive and negative relationship, respectively, with the number of residential investors. Additionally, a negative relationship between mortgage lending rate and number of investors is found, indicating a rising lending rate will increase expenses and contribute to low yield. We also found population growth and increased housing supply could increase the number of residential investors. These results could be used by tax and housing policy makers to recalibrate tax laws relating to negative gearing, especially for residential investment. Residential investors could potentially use this information for more informed decision making, particularly during periods of low yields.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 21-48 |
| Number of pages | 28 |
| Journal | Journal of Housing and the Built Environment |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2024 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© The Author(s) 2023.
Open Access - Access Right Statement
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.Keywords
- ARDL bounds test
- Greater Sydney
- House price appreciation
- Housing policy
- Housing yield
- Market fundamentals
- Residential investors
- SVAR
