The impact of political unrest or internal conflict on inbound tourism in the Republic of the Philippines

This study examines the impact of growing political unrest or internal conflict on inbound tourism in the Republic of the Philippines during the period 1994 to 2011. From 2003 onwards, despite formal renunciation of terrorism by one group, the separatist MILF group, acts of violence have continued with increasing political unrest and internal conflict. At the same time an interesting trend of increasing numbers in tourist arrivals was observed from 2003 onwards. The study employs a state space model to test the factors driving tourism during the period 1994 to 2011. The results imply that despite the negative impact of internal conflict and rising inflation, the impact of past income and the inertial effect representing past experience and connectivity to the tourist destination have been sufficient to drive inbound tourism to the Philippines.