The Kyoto Protocol : an agreement without a future?

Following two and a half years of intense negotiations culminating in some frantic last minute bargaining, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ('Kyoto Protocol')' was adopted in December 1997 at the Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ('COP 3'). At that time, there was a tangible sense of achievement and relief among the conference participants; the Kyoto Protocol was regarded by many as a significant advance in the quest to address, through international cooperation, the problems associated with global warming and climate change. Despite these positive signs, the reality has at least thus far not lived up to the promise and expectations envisaged in Kyoto in December 1997. Indeed, at the time of writing this commentary (June 2001) there exists a real possibility that the Kyoto Protocol might never actually come into force. To become a binding document, ratification is required by a minimum of 55 countries, accounting for at least 55 per cent of total carbon dioxide emissions by Annex I countries in 1990. For this level to be achieved, virtually all of the major industrialised countries need to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, although it is at least mathematically - if (arguably) not politically - possible that the required levels might still be reached without ratification by the US. At present, 34 countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol - however, not one of these is a Group of 8 ('G8') or, indeed, an Annex I country.