The modifying effects of meteorological factors on the association between short-term PM_2.5 exposure and daily lung cancer deaths in Jining, China

Studies on the association between short-term PM_2.5 exposure and lung cancer remain relatively limited, with little attention paid to the potential modifying effects of meteorological factors. Using a generalized additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution, this study analyzed the relationship between short-term PM_2.5 exposure and daily lung cancer deaths in Jining City between 2019 and 2022, and further explored the modifying effects of meteorological factors. The average daily PM_2.5 concentration was 50.14 μg/m³, with an average daily temperature of 15.43 °C, an average daily relative humidity of 65.79 %, and an average daily wind speed of 1.92 m/s. Short-term PM_2.5 exposure was associated with an increase in daily lung cancer deaths: for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration, the relative risk (RR) at lag 0–12 days was 1.016 (95 % CI: 1.001, 1.032). The effect of short-term PM_2.5 exposure on daily lung cancer deaths was more pronounced with high temperature, medium humidity, and high wind speed, with RR values of 1.033 (95 % CI: 1.005, 1.061), 1.017 (95 % CI: 1.002, 1.033), and 1.022 (95 % CI: 1.004, 1.040), respectively. Modifying effects across different meteorological factor levels were also observed in males, females, and individuals aged 65 or younger. This study affirmed the association between short-term PM_2.5 exposure and daily lung cancer deaths. It revealed the modifying effects of meteorological factors in this association, providing a reference for identifying specific environmental risk factors and formulating targeted intervention strategies.