The use of probability-distributed initial losses in design flood estimation

Ataur Rahman, Erwin Weinmann, Russell G. Mein

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The magnitude of the flood generated from a storm depends to a significant degree on how much of the rainfall is converted into surface runoffand how much of it is "lost". For design flood estimation, lumped conceptual loss models such as the 'initial loss - continuing loss model' are frequently adopted in Australia. This paper examines the role played by initial loss modelling in flood estimation for selected Victorian catchments. The large variability of initial loss for different flood events in a catchment is represented by a four-parameter Beta distribution fitted to the observed initial loss data. These stochastic losses are used in a Monte Carlo simulation technique with stochastically generated design rainfall events to determine derived flood frequency curves. It has been found that, in the range of relatively frequent floods, the derived flood frequency curves are quite sensitive to details of the adopted loss modelling approach. The paper shows the potential of adopting stochastic losses in design flood esimation.
    Original languageEnglish
    Number of pages13
    JournalAustralian Journal of Water Resources
    Publication statusPublished - 2002

    Keywords

    • Australia
    • Victoria
    • flood forecasting
    • mathematical models
    • runoff
    • watersheds

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