Travel intensity and climate policy: the influence of different mobility futures on the diffusion of battery integrated vehicles

The importance of a focus on mobility and the kilometres travelled using light duty vehicles is reflected in the persistence of strong demand for personal mobility and emissions that tend to be linked with population and economic growth. Simulation results using the WITCH model show that changes in the kilometres driven per year using light duty vehicles have a notable impact on investments related to the development of battery related technologies. As a result, different mobility futures have notably different optimal vehicle fleet compositions. As climate policy becomes more stringent, achieving abatement with increased mobility implies large investments in battery related technologies in comparison to the 2010 level. The model results also show that the Electric Vehicles Initiative goal of a 2% share of vehicles in 2020 could be achieved with climate policy in place. However, notable cost reductions and the removal of barriers to diffusion will need to continue for the EVI goal to be achieved.