Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015 : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study

GBD 2015 Eastern Mediterranean Region HIV/AIDS Collaborators, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Haidong Wang, Raghid Charara, Ibrahim Khalil, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Ashkan Afshin, Michael Collison, Farah Daoud, Adrienne Chew, Kristopher J. Krohn, Austin Carter, Kyle J. Foreman, Fei He, Nicholas J. Kassebaum, Michael Kutz, Mojde Mirarefin, Grant Nguyen, Naris Silpakit, Amber SligarAmanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Kaja M. Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Kelemework Adane, Arnav Agarwal, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Alireza Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Faris Hasan Al Lami, Khurshid Alam, Deena Alasfoor, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Fatma Al-Maskari, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Khalid A. Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Walid Ammar, Nahla Anber, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Hamid Asayesh, Rana Jawad Asghar, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Avokpaho, Tadesse Awoke Ayele, Peter Azzopardi, Umar Bacha, Aleksandra Barac, Till Barnighausen, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela M. Bensenor, Adugnaw Berhane, Pascal Obong Bessong, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Charles Birungi, Zahid A. Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Hadi Danawi, Jose Das Neves, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Don C. Des Jarlais, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Shirin Djalalinia, Kerrie E. (Aunty) Doyle, Aman Yesuf Endries, Babak Eshrati, Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon, Maryam S. Farvid, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa, Florian Fischer, Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, Elizabeth Glaser, Philimon N. Gona, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rahul Gupta, Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Mitiku Teshome Hambisa, Samer Hamidi, Hilda L. Harb, Habtamu Abera Hareri, Nobuyuki Horita, Abdullatif Husseini, Ahmed Ibrahim, Spencer Lewis James, Jost B. Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Yousef Saleh Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Yun Jin Kim, Ai Koyanagi, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Heidi J. Larson, Asma Abdul Latif, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Raimundas Lunevicius, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Tsegahun Manyazewal, Desalegn Markos, Habibolah Masoudi Farid, Alem Mehari, Alemayehu B. Mekonnen, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Francis Apolinary Mhimbira, Ted R. Miller, Ami R. Moore, Ghina R. Mumtaz, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Joel Negin, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Erika Ota, David M. Pereira, Farshad Pourmalek, Mostafa Qorbani, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Usha Ram, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Satar Rezaei, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Hirbo Shore Roba, Gholamreza Roshandel, Mahdi Safdarian, Saeid Safiri, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Payman Salamati, Abdallah M. Samy, Benn Sartorius, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Ephrem Lejore Sibamo, Jasvinder A. Singh, Badr H. A. Sobaih, Sergey Soshnikov, Muawiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bryan L. Sykes, Nuno Taveira, Teketo Kassaw Tegegne, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Tesfalidet Tekelab, Girma Temam Shifa, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Belay Tesssema, Roman Topor-Madry, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Olalekan A. Uthman, Stein Emil Vollset, Fiseha Wadilo, Tolassa Wakayo, Minyahil Alebachew Woldu, Abdulhalik Workicho, Shimelash Bitew Workie, Mohsen Yaghoubi, Ayalnesh Zemene Yalew, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z. Younis, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Aisha O. Jumaan, Theo Vos, Simon I. Hay, Mohsen Naghavi, Christopher J. L. Murray, Ali H. Mokdad

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13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods: Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results: In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions: HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance, and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages14
JournalInternational Journal of Public Health
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print (In Press) - 2017

Open Access - Access Right Statement

© The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

Keywords

  • AIDS (disease)
  • HIV (viruses)
  • HIV infections
  • Middle East
  • mortality

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