TY - JOUR
T1 - Vegetation-climate feedbacks enhance spatial heterogeneity of Pan-Amazonian ecosystem states under climate change
AU - Wu, Minchao
AU - Smith, Benjamin
AU - Schurgers, Guy
AU - Ahlstrom, Anders
AU - Rummukainen, Markku
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Amazonian ecosystems range from rainforest to open dryland vegetation, with a following decrease in biomass along the moisture gradient. Biomass can vary greatly at the ecological transition zone between grass dominated savannahs and the forest. It is not well understood if the transition zone could expand under climate change, and thereby reduce ecosystem stability and carbon storage in biomass. Here, we quantify such changes by using a high-resolution regional Earth system model under RCP 8.5 climate scenario. We disentangle the effects of climate, CO2, and land use by considering vegetation-climate feedbacks. Our results suggest that future climate change combined with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration tends to induce a larger spatial gradient of ecosystem states, increasing the transition area by ∼110% at the end of the century. Vegetation feedbacks generally amplify the climate effect by intensifying the climate-induced warming and drought, further enhancing spatial heterogeneity.
AB - Amazonian ecosystems range from rainforest to open dryland vegetation, with a following decrease in biomass along the moisture gradient. Biomass can vary greatly at the ecological transition zone between grass dominated savannahs and the forest. It is not well understood if the transition zone could expand under climate change, and thereby reduce ecosystem stability and carbon storage in biomass. Here, we quantify such changes by using a high-resolution regional Earth system model under RCP 8.5 climate scenario. We disentangle the effects of climate, CO2, and land use by considering vegetation-climate feedbacks. Our results suggest that future climate change combined with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration tends to induce a larger spatial gradient of ecosystem states, increasing the transition area by ∼110% at the end of the century. Vegetation feedbacks generally amplify the climate effect by intensifying the climate-induced warming and drought, further enhancing spatial heterogeneity.
UR - https://hdl.handle.net/1959.7/uws:63200
U2 - 10.1029/2020GL092001
DO - 10.1029/2020GL092001
M3 - Article
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 48
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 8
M1 - e2020GL092001
ER -