Water use in Pakistan's agricultural sector: water conservation under the changed climatic conditions

Pakistan's economy heavily relies on agriculture sector which accounts for a quarter of its GDP and employs two-fifths of total labourforce. Pakistan is located in a semiarid to arid region where rainfall is very low. The agriculture mainly depends on the Indus River System (IRS) for ninety percent of its irrigation needs, which also supply by about thirty percent of its total energy generation. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fourth Assessment Report (IPPC-AR4), the world temperature is bound to rise by anywhere between one to six degrees Celsius by the end of this century. The IPCC forecast has special relevance for Pakistan, as IRS is heavily reliant on Himalayan Glaciers which release water in dry heat of summer before monsoon. The Himalayan glaciers feeding IRS can disappear in a few decades leaving very little water in IRS. The climate change is also forecasted to lead to more intense rainfall events at irregular intervals resulting in floods and droughts in Pakistan. This paper analyses the impacts of climate change on energy and water sector of Pakistan in future. Based on its findings it recommends certain policy changes as well as changes in the mindset of policy makers and planners regarding managing and mitigating vulnerability in water, energy and agriculture sectors. The paper also discusses the course of action policy makers can adopt for water conservation (engaging international community) to avoid a potential human tragedy. Also it has particular relevance for Gulf region as it is situated right next to Pakistan which has historic ties (in particular with Balochistan) and contemporary links by the way of migrant workers and food supplies. Any disruption caused by climate change in Pakistan can have spillover effect on the Gulf countries.