Where Are the Jobs? Part 1: Western Sydney's Short-lived Jobs Boom

Research for this series of reports was conducted throughout 2019. Our focus back then was on trends in the Western Sydney economy which was showing record levels of economic growth and jobs generation. Had it not been for the impacts of COVID-19, the reports would have concentrated on the reasons for this economic success, with reflections on some of the downsides and some qualifications about its durability. Now, COVID-19 places the reports in a new context. A different and, at this point, unknowable economic pathway for the region is being laid, and new research will be required to map and inform a reconfigured journey. All this said, COVID-19 gives the reports enhanced public importance. The region’s economic strengths and weaknesses coming in to the COVID-19 crisis will not have changed, and knowing more about these strengths and weaknesses will be important for charting the post-COVID-19 journey. In this light, the reports set out the findings from the project’s questions: What was underpinning Western Sydney’s economic boom? How well was the boom driving a transformation of the region towards a prosperous future? How well was the boom creating more sustainable access to jobs for the region’s rapidly growing workforce? How effective were the region’s institutional plans, specifically those with a focus on jobs? This report concentrates on what has been happening in the region’s labour force. It sets the picture through an analysis of the ways population growth generates particular labour force outcomes. It then positions Western Sydney’s labour force growth and change against shifts in the region’s economic structure. Of importance here is the region’s long term struggle with the decline, in both relative and absolute terms, of Western Sydney manufacturing, and the ways Western Sydney has engineered a successful post-manufacturing transformation. Two developments have been important in this transformation. One is the region’s capture of economic opportunities arising from population growth. A booming construction sector has been the standout component, alongside employment growth in other population-driven sectors including health care and social assistance, education and training, retailing, and accommodation and food services. This report assesses the strengths and weaknesses of these growth sectors, identifying the vulnerability of the construction sector to historic boom-bust cycles and of the other population-driven sectors to slowing population growth arising from the impacts of COVID-19. The second development is the surge in the number of highly-qualified Western Sydney workers in professional and knowledge occupations. The issue here, of course, is the deficit in jobs creation within the region for these workers, a matter we pursue in more detail in later reports.