Where Are the Jobs? Part 3: Western Sydney Workers in 2036

In two accompanying reports we analyse the recent history of jobs generation in Western Sydney and how the ongoing jobs deficit affects different segments of the region's labour force. We note, too, how poor jobs access has become chronic in particular neighbourhoods. In this report we turn our attention and ask what will happen to the region over the next twenty years? Is the region likely to evolve an economic profile capable of delivering quality jobs in sufficient numbers to its growing workforce, or will the future be a disappointing one for workers and households with each day a frustrating repeat of another: long commutes, car dependency, disillusioned youth, and protracted joblessness in the same old places? Our report commences with detailed examination of the projections for Western Sydney undertaken by Transport for NSW, the agency responsible for the NSW government's employment and population modelling. We then contextualise these projections with comments on the possible impact of COVID-19 and the economic recession that has taken hold as a consequence of the virus. We make particular comment on issues relating to jobs access for the professional services worker, in the labour market segment that has grown spectacularly in Western Sydney in the last two decades, but for whom employment opportunity within the region has remained poor. We follow this discussion with analysis of two scenarios, each with different jobs outcomes to those derived by Transport for NSW modellers, and show how variations in assumptions about the next 20 years result in dramatically different employment and commuting landscapes for Western Sydney. The final section checks these scenarios against the optimistic outcomes expected from a Western Sydney airport and aerotropolis. We ask whether Western Sydney is on a winner with these two grand ventures? We then conclude with some observations about policy directions and future research.