Climate scenario analysis in corporate strategy: drivers of adoption and implications for carbon assurance

Abstract

Organisations are increasingly required to navigate climate change uncertainties and complex stakeholder relationships. As stakeholders demand forward-looking strategies that mitigate future risks, firms have begun adopting climate change scenario analysis as a strategic tool to enhance climate resilience. Despite its recent endorsement by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures and integration into the upcoming International Financial Reporting Standards S2 standard, little is known about scenario analysis in a climate change context. This study first addresses this gap by conducting a descriptive analysis of scenario analysis adoption and firm characteristics across the 2017–2022 period, using international data from the CDP2018–2023 surveys. Then it empirically examines gender diversity at three hierarchical levels (board, management, and employees) as determinants of scenario analysis adoption along with key environmental moderators. Finally, it investigates how scenario analysis influences the adoption of carbon assurance, a critical strategy for verifying emissions data and addressing stakeholder concerns.

This study represents the first systematic investigation into scenario analysis adoption trends, their determinants, and the influence of scenario analysis on carbon assurance. The results represent critical contributions to the carbon accounting and sustainability literature, particularly in the context of climate-related risk and uncertainty planning. Drawing on a unique dataset covering 2017–2022, this analysis also provides a longitudinal perspective on the growth, methodological preferences, and industry-specific adoption of scenario analysis. In addition, the findings demonstrate how gender diversity enhances corporate climate governance, underscoring the value of inclusive leadership in sustainability planning. These findings have significant implications for policymakers, investors, and corporate executives, further highlighting the strategic importance of carbon assurance in strengthening scenario analysis outcomes. These insights provide a foundation for future research on corporate climate strategy and support efforts to improve stakeholder trust, emissions accountability, and forward- looking sustainability initiatives.

Date of Thesis submission	2025
Original language	English
Awarding Institution	Western Sydney University
Sponsors	Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship
Supervisor	Qingliang Tang (Supervisor), Le Luo (Supervisor), Hanlu Fan (Supervisor) & Rina Datt (Supervisor)