Development of a reconstruction : governance contingency path analysis for a system's evolution after turbulence : the case of Lebanon

  • Mammy Helou

Western Sydney University thesis: Doctoral thesis

Abstract

In this study the author attempts to evaluate structural evolutionary networks after turbulence using reconstructive logic. Analysing contingent stages of evolution provide for an in-depth study of the various forces impacting on a non-linear social system's recovery after turbulence. Similarly, such a mode of analysis allows for studying the inter-relationships among a system's endogenous and exogenous forces. Although each crisis is unique, yet an analysis of previous events would pave the way to generate learning curves geared towards the prevention, or at least mitigation, of the impact of future similar events. A detailed conceptual analysis of decision-making contexts and behavioural styles under varying levels of turbulent environmental states are evaluated to illustrate the direct and indirect inter-relationships among the actors/participants and their contributions to the creation and prolongation of a state of turbulence and instability. Since environmental states relate to the perceptions of the actors involved and their interactions over time, the connection between the two main environmental levels, namely, the system's internal micro-environmental factors - including inherent socio-political contradictions - and its external uncontrollable macro-environmental influences - incorporating regional and international forces - are evaluated. This study primarily deals with contingency planning for system's evolution after crisis. It is essentially a case study of turbulence at the national level of analysis, mainly dealing with the development of normative and predictive transferable policy implications geared towards a system's embarkation on a recovery and reconstruction mode. With this purpose in mind, this research study aims at developing a Reconstruction - Governance Contingency Path Analysis (RGPA) in terms of identifying and evaluating contingent stages of evolution based on an analysis of developmental leadership pathways. This is accomplished through an in-depth analysis of the components and conditions for a system's evolution as well as evaluating the inter-relationship between the system itself and its environment, both at the micro- and macro-levels. To illustrate its application to a specific country, the RGPA is applied to the case study of Lebanon
Date of Award1997
Original languageEnglish

Keywords

  • reconstructive logic
  • Lebanon
  • reconstrution
  • environmental forces
  • leadership
  • behavioural styles

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