Judgemental forecasting in healthcare inventory management : a supplier perspective

Abstract

This research study investigates how planners in healthcare supplier firms make judgemental forecasting decisions during inventory planning. The research uses the single case study method and investigates a large healthcare supplier firm operating in Australia. The case firm is a multinational firm which has a wide variety of products and a diverse range of customers including both institutional customers and individual customers. Data collected through semi-structured interviews with twelve experts involved in the judgemental forecasting process were analysed using the thematic analysis method. The research finds that there is high interdependence and mutual influence of product type, demand, supply, contextual information and expert behaviour affecting judgemental forecasting in healthcare suppliers. The product type and product life cycle (PLC) stage are used to determine the selection of the forecasting approach, where products in introductory, growth, declining and obsolescence stages involve high frequency of JF, while mature products involve low frequency of JF. Demand and supply uncertainty has a mixed impact on the introductory, growth and obsoleting products, where mature and declining products have relatively low demand and supply uncertainty. Although contextual information is important for JF decision-making, the availability of information varies, irrespective of the extent of JF involved in the products. This information gap necessitates the experts to employ their domain knowledge, expertise and judgement in JF decisions. The study identifies that the experts' behaviour, knowledge, intuition and judgement are the final determinant factor of the JF adjustments. This research also validates the existence and influence of multiple exceptional (multiplex) elements of healthcare supply chains on the suppliers' inventory and forecasting decisions. The study extends the theoretical knowledge base on demand forecasting, by contributing empirical evidence of how experts make judgemental forecasting decisions during inventory planning in multiplex environments. It explains the rationale and process by which healthcare supplier firms, specifically inventory planners, use the multiplex elements of the industry such as influence of patientcare and lifesaving in their objectives, high level of involvement of people and organisations, range and criticality of products, product complexity and physician involvement in supply selection, during their JF decision-making. forecasting data.

Date of Award	2020
Original language	English