Populist voting demographics in Australia and New Zealand : an aggregate level analysis

Abstract

Do populist supporters in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) share commonalities or does each country possess its own unique form of populist supporter? To consider this question this study uses aggregate level data to create a quantitative analysis of populist support in ANZ and is divided into five sections. Section 1 establishes what populism is in a theoretical context and Section 2 addresses the factors that cause and sustain populism. Section 3 applies these principles to four political parties deemed to be populist in ANZ; Pauline Hanson's One Nation, United Australia Party, Association of Consumers and Taxpayers and New Zealand First. Section 4 uses simple linear regression to compare vote share from the 2019 Australian Federal election and the 2020 New Zealand General election to the most recent census data in each country determining demographic support. Multiple regression models then present the strongest demographic variables supporting each party. Section 5 discusses two significant findings. First, there is no single variable determining populist support across ANZ but there are commonalities within the variable categories of education and employment type. Second, two distinct types of populism are present in New Zealand compared to a single competing populist presence in Australia.

Date of Award	2022
Original language	English