The relationship between the annualised volatility and correlation of G7 ten-year bond returns

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between the annualised volatility and correlation of G7 ten-year bond returns for the period July 1992 to June 1998 and the effects that such a relationship has on portfolio diversification. The stock market crash of 1987 and the growing importance of global equity markets has encouraged a plethora of research into the volatility and correlations between international equity markets. Despite this, very little attention has been paid to the transmission of currency-based bond returns across national boundaries. The findings in this thesis are important because evidence is provided that suggests the benefits of international bond diversification are limited. The evidence provided clearly indicates that because correlations amongst G7 currency-hedged bond returns are high, the relationship between bond volatility and correlation of returns has limited benefits for portfolio managers and traders. As a result, diversification may not significantly reduce portfolio risk. Even during periods of ongoing annualised volatility decreases, the correlation between most markets remains high. Unlike the volatility trends presented in this thesis, there appears to be no trend or consistency amongst the correlation of returns between G7 markets.

Date of Award	1999
Original language	English